TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liquidof Liquid, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$852,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,034,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $852,501 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe74a…40eebacked Liquid44c109,156$47,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,364.732653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Liquid44c96,855$43,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,773.439942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Liquid51c65,816$33,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,472.269861.2%60 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Astralis56c30,100$16,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,826.9730340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Astralis55c27,270$15,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,075.6260853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Liquid64c26,581$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,580.652958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Astralis56c21,429$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Astralis55c20,146$11,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,136.669050%45 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Astralis36c15,289$5,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,478.2712648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Astralis58c15,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,70057647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Astralis31c13,675$4,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,258.972,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd1…8257backed Astralis55c13,660$7,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,512.841963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Astralis56c13,106$7,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,329.2823852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Astralis49c12,389$6,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,081.721,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd9…3373backed Astralis55c12,083$6,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,690.416752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Astralis29c11,615$3,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,318.81,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Astralis26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6004862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Liquid45c9,891$4,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,439.8724440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabdf…e8e4backed Liquid74c9,889$7,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5423366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Liquid42c9,254$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,367.0511655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Liquid59c9,000$5,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,734.988042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Astralis53c8,888$4,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,735.0619043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed Astralis56c8,286$4,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,630.52972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Astralis56c8,075$4,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,501.912544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Astralis56c7,894$4,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,420.7415050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Astralis55c7,822$4,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,333.4417148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Astralis56c7,646$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.7310549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Astralis30c7,428$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.464,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Astralis56c7,103$3,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,958.4111353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Astralis56c6,868$3,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,84619660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed Liquid59c6,130$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.628657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Astralis56c6,113$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4509234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Liquid71c6,074$4,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.8783652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Astralis45c6,002$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6791,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis24c5,999$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.341,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Astralis27c5,885$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.172832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Astralis56c5,667$3,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,173.3872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x928e…d701backed Astralis36c5,655$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.564852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Liquid61c5,648$3,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,186.633,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Astralis55c5,555$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.2488242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Liquid43c5,500$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,134.9814148.9%69 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Liquid64c5,498$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.276741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Astralis56c5,256$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.3617249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Liquid72c5,020$3,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.664552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Astralis57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8504643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Astralis55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.996555.4%36 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed Astralis55c4,908$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.511833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Liquid60c4,855$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.6317761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Liquid45c4,677$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.549442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Astralis56c4,677$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.1253746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Liquid45c4,433$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.27683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+61.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked Astralis55c4,370$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.58852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Astralis55c4,243$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.1610252%53 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Liquid50c4,225$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,11597952.4%513 W · 466 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Liquid68c4,090$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed Astralis56c4,072$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.227349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Liquid45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.991,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Astralis34c4,000$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.827450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Astralis29c3,914$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.1944648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x546a…36fdbacked Astralis55c3,878$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.674047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Liquid42c3,830$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,221.46347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Liquid67c3,693$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.7121051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Liquid45c3,623$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.7811758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Liquid51c3,623$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.9927452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Liquid44c3,584$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.2522849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Astralis56c3,565$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.2912153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Astralis47c3,549$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6739044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Astralis56c3,482$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.924362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf82d…ae0fbacked Astralis56c3,357$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Astralis9c3,289$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.393426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked Astralis40c3,033$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.2311630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Liquid42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.9767041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Liquid45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9710442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Astralis24c2,966$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.16160.7%37 W · 24 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Astralis29c2,956$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.161,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Liquid57c2,900$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.9824139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Astralis34c2,893$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.6114441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Astralis51c2,549$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.7946345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Astralis57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Astralis56c2,414$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.0919247.9%92 W · 100 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e2…d5cabacked Liquid43c2,406$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce67…b508backed Astralis55c2,400$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.741553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Astralis44c2,289$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99961754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Liquid44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.735756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Astralis55c2,222$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.124846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc84e…c4a5backed Liquid43c2,200$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Liquid72c2,197$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.662045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Astralis56c2,186$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Astralis56c2,143$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20011241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Astralis56c2,125$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19025261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed Liquid45c2,113$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.335347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Astralis21c2,111$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.329337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd8f…20abbacked Liquid54c2,045$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.933557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Liquid45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10026549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Liquid44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12035940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Astralis57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Astralis56c2,000$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1153435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-40.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Astralis29c1,990$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.9661228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Astralis56c1,977$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.5726344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Liquid64c1,908$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.869141.8%38 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.