TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, NIP
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$556,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$618,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $556,241 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 495 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed NIP47c101,299$47,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,718.29942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed PARIVISION53c75,203$39,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,459.269247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked PARIVISION52c60,068$31,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,832.849861.2%60 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…6772backed NIP48c20,577$9,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,876.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed NIP40c20,403$8,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,229.319442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked NIP46c17,360$7,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,927.513633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION62c17,089$10,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,481.364,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed NIP46c15,618$7,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,184.1411655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed PARIVISION56c12,000$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.9957647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked PARIVISION68c11,320$7,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.2883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed PARIVISION51c10,864$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,323.4160853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked NIP44c10,721$4,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,723.6813646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed NIP48c10,380$4,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,93325842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed NIP48c10,000$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,759.9972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed NIP47c9,564$4,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,487.4526344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked PARIVISION73c7,866$5,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.19580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed NIP48c7,500$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6003237.5%12 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-35.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed PARIVISION54c7,500$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.9967041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed PARIVISION53c7,452$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.537349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked PARIVISION70c7,140$4,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.666160.7%37 W · 24 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed PARIVISION54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7608042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed PARIVISION71c6,000$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7406741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed NIP31c6,000$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.993557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ecabacked NIP54c5,404$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4a…a3a3backed NIP39c5,354$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.981741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION52c5,201$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.23,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed NIP48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed PARIVISION52c4,943$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,372.6471645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked PARIVISION66c4,661$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.0819043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed NIP48c4,526$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.982544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION71c3,828$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.931,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed NIP44c3,700$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.9821846.8%102 W · 116 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION53c3,587$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.1214441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed PARIVISION56c3,579$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.849234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed NIP30c3,368$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x928e…d701backed NIP35c3,330$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.354852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked PARIVISION74c3,289$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.8141069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed PARIVISION52c3,120$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.861,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked NIP33c3,044$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005738.6%22 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked PARIVISION59c2,652$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.281,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed NIP41c2,566$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.822347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked NIP38c2,543$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.1861228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ac…d6dbbacked NIP48c2,492$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e2…c881backed PARIVISION53c2,319$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed NIP46c2,171$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2839…0efebacked PARIVISION53c2,001$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.29825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed NIP29c2,000$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58744648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed PARIVISION52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.085756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked PARIVISION54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8527452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION69c1,820$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.771,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed PARIVISION52c1,800$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.988657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked PARIVISION73c1,762$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.254763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked NIP47c1,747$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.521,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed PARIVISION52c1,594$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.127450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed NIP38c1,555$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.9246340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed PARIVISION53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70514148.9%69 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed NIP28c1,468$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.239337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked NIP33c1,459$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.561,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed PARIVISION57c1,410$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.6517761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked NIP14c1,400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed NIP45c1,357$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.1413954.7%76 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf1…5c57backed PARIVISION53c1,321$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.752528%7 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-45.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed PARIVISION51c1,297$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.7624139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked PARIVISION52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57622056.4%124 W · 96 L+19.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed PARIVISION54c1,175$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.381,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed PARIVISION54c1,161$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.1129851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed NIP46c1,152$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53038739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x763d…d0f2backed NIP5c1,148$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.672123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff1f…d5dfbacked PARIVISION54c1,145$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdaf…1aaebacked NIP46c1,145$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked PARIVISION53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.0825261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed PARIVISION57c1,124$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.8712641.3%52 W · 74 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed PARIVISION55c1,122$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.656546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed PARIVISION54c1,115$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.8678639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed NIP20c1,083$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510951.4%56 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed NIP47c1,067$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.315749%77 W · 80 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked NIP38c1,066$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009050%45 W · 45 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked NIP47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018051.1%92 W · 88 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked NIP48c1,057$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.0960953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed NIP48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021251.4%109 W · 103 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc5…1993backed PARIVISION74c1,033$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.76560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed NIP49c1,031$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.951656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed NIP48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48026549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed PARIVISION52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed NIP48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.992669.2%18 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+60.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed PARIVISION49c946.23$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.774850%24 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked PARIVISION53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.426045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION53c939.31$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.4823932.2%77 W · 162 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed NIP48c934$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3253746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed NIP29c905.36$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5611558.3%67 W · 48 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed PARIVISION62c878.63$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.0346345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aff…9200backed NIP58c855.35$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked NIP10c835.7$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.545738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d12…caa9backed NIP54c826.38$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked PARIVISION79c812$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.9732930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed NIP47c810.64$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38120050.5%101 W · 99 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x061e…d883backed PARIVISION59c783.44$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked NIP43c777$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.111,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed PARIVISION52c770$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.626743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed NIP39c766.67$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2993540%14 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.