Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd34418c49a123c795c3345b4ef94e97645bb4d2f0d9616dfcbc9bdd3abcc68e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 69c | 10,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 8,916$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 77c | 3,899$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.77 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 33c | 1,295$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.39 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 33c | 1,030$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 32c | 936$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.51 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 24c | 816.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 33c | 753.05$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.68 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 67c | 643.25$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.27 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 31c | 590$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.94 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 553$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 80c | 395.91$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Under | 67c | 374$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…dfedbacked Under | 77c | 266.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked Under | 75c | 262.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Over | 31c | 200.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 33c | 168.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Over | 31c | 159.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 141.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 27c | 139.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 24c | 128.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 35c | 102.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 25c | 90.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 25c | 80.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 80c | 77.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 69c | 72.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 32c | 68.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 28c | 53.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 31c | 49.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 67c | 44.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…1809backed Over | 24c | 44.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…8d2ebacked Under | 79c | 37.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 67c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…770ebacked Under | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.