Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b12a94ae0fe56528ef0028345f5b3575b188bbe49c414138ac0817fca82edf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 21c | 5,921$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.08 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 4,092$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 79c | 3,798$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.58 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…5a70backed Over | 79c | 2,692$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 2,574$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.81 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 79c | 1,988$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.48 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 79c | 1,275$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.09 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Over | 72c | 1,147$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.35 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Under | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 22c | 770.56$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Under | 2c | 730.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 32c | 625.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 612.85$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 576.83$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 22c | 530.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 78c | 525$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 66c | 450$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 350$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 79c | 320$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe90…5bbbbacked Over | 77c | 309.09$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 21c | 212.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 202$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 69c | 199.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 72c | 189.17$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under | 22c | 175.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Over | 78c | 170.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 131.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf660…87e8backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 22c | 122$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 75c | 99.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 74c | 67.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Over | 77c | 64.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 32c | 61.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 21c | 61.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 79c | 48.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 72c | 47.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…af80backed Over | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 71c | 43.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…1879backed Over | 79c | 43.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 78c | 34.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 64c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…5712backed Over | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…0387backed Over | 79c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Over | 79c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Over | 77c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.