Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ddcca5c271e142640c4045a7fef3cce3db669941bf4a61ab17d700314379cc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $607,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $540,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $607,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe558…99bebacked Yes | 6c | 18,628$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,491.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +223%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 9c | 18,366$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.9 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 18,124$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,676.91 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 52c | 15,556$8,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,486.33 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 73c | 13,792$10,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,054.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 35c | 12,231$4,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,942.68 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 10,968$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,141.9 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 25c | 10,722$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,042.08 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 7,900$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,827.61 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 43c | 7,292$3,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.78 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 70c | 5,985$4,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.32 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 9c | 5,956$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,390 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 5,829$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,687.93 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 9c | 5,700$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,211.24 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed Yes | 2c | 5,218$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,095.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +612.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 59c | 5,136$3,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,031.94 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 4,823$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,073.84 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 4c | 4,760$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,580.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +428.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 66c | 4,712$3,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.45 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 23c | 4,690$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,602.72 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…48c7backed No | 66c | 4,644$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 31c | 4,473$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.17 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…2869backed Yes | 3c | 4,408$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,288.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +424.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,299$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,801.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 39c | 4,248$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.49 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 4,236$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.18 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 67c | 4,214$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.47 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 3,913$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850.64 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 29c | 3,905$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.19 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 22c | 3,300$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.84 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 36c | 3,164$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.82 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,079$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,945.4 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 28c | 3,035$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.56 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 23c | 3,028$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.46 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 2c | 2,654$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 80c | 2,612$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 43c | 2,516$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.32 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 18c | 2,512$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.28 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked No | 65c | 2,503$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…0576backed Yes | 2c | 2,466$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +726.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 3c | 2,458$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 57c | 2,409$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.06 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 42c | 2,405$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.44 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.29 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 1c | 2,130$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.68 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed Yes | 49c | 2,129$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 36c | 2,063$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.21 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 47c | 2,005$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.38 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,977$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.92 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 16c | 1,864$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.4 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 35c | 1,785$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.98 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 24c | 1,781$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.62 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 76c | 1,700$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…f176backed Yes | 61c | 1,700$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 64c | 1,697$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.22 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 33c | 1,564$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.24 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 34c | 1,557$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.41 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 29c | 1,536$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.13 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 27c | 1,530$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.29 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b76bbacked No | 71c | 1,526$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,487$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.6 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 1,470$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.91 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 16c | 1,383$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.72 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 24c | 1,300$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.5 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,240$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.49 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…a508backed Yes | 36c | 1,229$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,163$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.33 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed No | 5c | 1,163$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 3c | 1,158$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +313.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 1,144$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.55 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 19c | 1,073$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.82 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 5c | 1,025$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…f6e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,017$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +442.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 54c | 1,010$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.05 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…343fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.98 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 18c | 991.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.55 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 986.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.86 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…4e6bbacked Yes | 2c | 937.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 33c | 930.29$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.35 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…f94dbacked Yes | 3c | 928.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,615.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 1c | 926.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.3 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 27c | 906.96$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.96 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…070abacked No | 69c | 892.23$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 27c | 858.66$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.28 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc641…af27backed Yes | 25c | 802.61$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked No | 1c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 42c | 706.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.93 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 5c | 699.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 25c | 683.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.95 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 11c | 681.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.07 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 23c | 676.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.72 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 22c | 676$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.37 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 3c | 670.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.67 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 55c | 667.41$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 48c | 646.29$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.29 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 46c | 645.02$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.19 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.