TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$607,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$540,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $607,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe558…99bebacked Yes6c18,628$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,491.081118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+223%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked No9c18,366$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.91779%16 W · 161 L+0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes2c18,124$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,676.915325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes52c15,556$8,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,486.3366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed No73c13,792$10,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,054.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes35c12,231$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,942.6818012.8%23 W · 157 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-17.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes8c10,968$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,141.915313.1%20 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes25c10,722$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,042.0853817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes1c7,900$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,827.615249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes43c7,292$3,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160.7829331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes70c5,985$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.322623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-62%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes9c5,956$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,39022119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes2c5,829$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,687.9368615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes9c5,700$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,211.2422710.1%23 W · 204 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3001…5cb2backed Yes2c5,218$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,095.57616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+612.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed No59c5,136$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.9426112.6%33 W · 228 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes16c4,823$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.841329.8%13 W · 119 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes4c4,760$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,580.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+428.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No66c4,712$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,105.4513430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes23c4,690$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,602.725328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…48c7backed No66c4,644$3,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,052.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf673…406fbacked Yes31c4,473$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.1714818.2%27 W · 121 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0748…2869backed Yes3c4,408$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,288.13714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick4cpaid+424.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…602cbacked Yes12c4,299$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,801.191414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes39c4,248$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,577.4923914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c4,236$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,751.1899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes67c4,214$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.472718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-57.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes2c3,913$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,850.641818.3%15 W · 166 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes29c3,905$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.193616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes22c3,300$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.8434714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b4c…3742backed Yes36c3,164$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.824214.3%6 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c3,079$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.42,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes28c3,035$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.5611820.3%24 W · 94 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2631…4d56backed Yes23c3,028$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.461049.6%10 W · 94 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked No2c2,654$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506124.6%15 W · 46 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes80c2,612$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.862142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+104.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes43c2,516$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.3275122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No18c2,512$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.284568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked No65c2,503$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.9420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5056…0576backed Yes2c2,466$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.99616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+726.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No3c2,458$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.161822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes57c2,409$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.062227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes42c2,405$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.445435.2%19 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes1c2,300$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.294869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes1c2,130$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.685710.5%6 W · 51 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+114.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d59…b185backed Yes49c2,129$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.67933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a92…a832backed Yes36c2,063$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.214814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No47c2,005$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.384537.8%17 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes26c1,977$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.926817.6%12 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0973…8986backed Yes16c1,864$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.48615.1%13 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90af…fe61backed Yes35c1,785$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.98519.8%5 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes24c1,781$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.6211417.5%20 W · 94 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes76c1,700$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…f176backed Yes61c1,700$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes64c1,697$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.226243.5%27 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes33c1,564$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.2428534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef3c…8e97backed Yes34c1,557$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.416217.7%11 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes29c1,536$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.1311231.3%35 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes27c1,530$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.292615.4%4 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b5…b76bbacked No71c1,526$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c8…a348backed No55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes3c1,487$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.614715%22 W · 125 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes4c1,470$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.9182711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c35…1a76backed Yes16c1,383$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.72454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-73.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865c…ad2abacked Yes24c1,300$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.511916.8%20 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes21c1,240$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.492516%4 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5e…a508backed Yes36c1,229$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.43825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-43.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes41c1,163$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.332958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eaf…e782backed No5c1,163$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6650%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x610a…1395backed Yes3c1,158$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.4714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+313.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c1,144$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.552,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes19c1,073$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.824129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbebc…4745backed Yes5c1,025$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.771127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+228.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc949…f6e4backed Yes1c1,017$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.142030%6 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+442.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes54c1,010$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.054912.2%6 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74b1…343fbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9701010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+233.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x403c…72a1backed Yes40c999.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-80.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes2c999.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.987311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes18c991.55$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.5520717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes4c986.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.8643719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1f…4e6bbacked Yes2c937.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+792.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dd…8121backed Yes33c930.29$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.35329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a4…f94dbacked Yes3c928.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.881100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,615.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…9c04backed Yes1c926.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.36331.7%20 W · 43 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+173.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c58…14f7backed Yes27c906.96$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.966315.9%10 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d4d…070abacked No69c892.23$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.34580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes27c858.66$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.282917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc641…af27backed Yes25c802.61$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab7…c17fbacked No1c800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf470…62d2backed Yes64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd361…3885backed Yes42c706.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.933040%12 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ae…9c6ebacked No5c699.02$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5411610.3%12 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes25c683.76$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.9528113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Yes11c681.19$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.0715717.8%28 W · 129 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes23c676.55$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.7210914.7%16 W · 93 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes22c676$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.3711810.2%12 W · 106 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x992d…743bbacked Yes3c670.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.67618.2%5 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick10cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb78…73a8backed Yes55c667.41$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.732133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Yes48c646.29$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.297139.4%28 W · 43 L+9.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+45.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d71…6945backed Yes46c645.02$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.194327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.