Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29887677521d8c4bc404b747b47560d725fbe32ce0f7f4e4b664e9a6d823e595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 21,219$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 12c | 15,642$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.97 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 14c | 13,400$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.99 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,266$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 11,152$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.47 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 14c | 7,240$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.94 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 6,730$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.88 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 15c | 4,440$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.9 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 0c | 3,996$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 3,298$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…72f0backed Yes | 16c | 3,166$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,795$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.08 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 15c | 2,110$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.52 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 2,075$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.21 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,973$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,811$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 16c | 1,678$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.07 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 15c | 1,677$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 14c | 1,640$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,391$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 9c | 1,359$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 14c | 1,322$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,286$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,280$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,219$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 1,159$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 18c | 1,084$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 13c | 1,044$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,011$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…6c76backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 12c | 990$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 16c | 961.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 15c | 866.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 8c | 849.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 13c | 758.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 13c | 730$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 16c | 700$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 13c | 699.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 14c | 673.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…ce1cbacked Yes | 16c | 672.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 14c | 652$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 19c | 600$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…1533backed Yes | 15c | 582.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 13c | 570.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 10c | 549.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 14c | 535.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…53d8backed Yes | 15c | 502.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 499.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed Yes | 14c | 489.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…0dfcbacked Yes | 16c | 467.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 435$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 418.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 18c | 413.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 12c | 412.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 12c | 404.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 15c | 400$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 3c | 390$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 13c | 387.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…67bcbacked Yes | 14c | 356$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 16c | 350$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 15c | 344.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes | 6c | 323.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…c2bcbacked Yes | 13c | 310$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 10c | 309.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…226ebacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 279.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 4c | 275$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…db4ebacked Yes | 14c | 270$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 19c | 258.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 14c | 235.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 15c | 234.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 12c | 216.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…0a61backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3c…8402backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.