Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7fdc532f7119b4d806b7b3c1f3c8fc7bac5b2b391a8a0e9fc1ad22c9be49966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 16c | 16,430$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.32 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 14,228$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 15c | 12,700$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.98 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 9,963$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.59 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 17c | 7,125$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.25 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 20c | 6,680$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.24 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 1c | 4,076$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 11c | 3,985$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.7 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,120$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.67 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 6c | 2,622$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 8c | 2,223$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,221$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 2,148$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.23 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 19c | 2,045$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.55 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 19c | 2,038$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.3 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccaf…3363backed Yes | 5c | 1,980$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 1c | 1,879$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 3c | 1,852$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 19c | 1,717$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.4 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,700$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 17c | 1,466$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.7 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 16c | 1,400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,382$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 14c | 1,199$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,170$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 12c | 1,146$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 10c | 1,110$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 15c | 1,100$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 1,043$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,040$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 16c | 990$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 20c | 879.19$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…6c76backed Yes | 19c | 839.5$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 16c | 825$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 12c | 824.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 12c | 799.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 19c | 652$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 648.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 9c | 639.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 16c | 629.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e0…b2b4backed Yes | 19c | 625.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 16c | 624.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…1148backed Yes | 20c | 610$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 19c | 599.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed Yes | 14c | 585.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +612.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…0dfcbacked Yes | 18c | 554.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 14c | 549.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…53d8backed Yes | 14c | 524.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…c91ebacked Yes | 21c | 480.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 434.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…58dabacked Yes | 21c | 414.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 20c | 397.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 17c | 381$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 14c | 380.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f6a9backed Yes | 21c | 373.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 17c | 370$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 11c | 360$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 16c | 303.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…6926backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 296.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…226ebacked Yes | 20c | 290.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 14c | 290$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 15c | 289.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 17c | 260$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 15c | 250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278c…3473backed Yes | 21c | 242.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 241.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 232.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…4e6bbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 185.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…0a61backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ab…b9d4backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 18c | 151.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.