Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x376e8dd3c92e5a7df8153a4ce565843d05f4cf3c2aa5b6a8d5ddd910d8ec08d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $253,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 15,807$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 13,495$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.21 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 12,199$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 10,429$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 7,660$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.35 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…d181backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…5795backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5484backed Yes | 3c | 6,500$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…8008backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…29aebacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…a1d6backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e564backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 6c | 5,351$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.75 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 4c | 4,047$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.94 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 9c | 3,800$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 2c | 3,061$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 5c | 2,967$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 2,358$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,847$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,779$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,695$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…58dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,340$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,289$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,275$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 3c | 979.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 1c | 974.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 9c | 885.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 1c | 755.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 694.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 2c | 680.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 2c | 638.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 3c | 612.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 502.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…4dbdbacked Yes | 6c | 471.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 467.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 4c | 461$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 4c | 435$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 4c | 410$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 5c | 377.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 7c | 366.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 4c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…226ebacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…d1c2backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…31a8backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.