Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44827575e5c5b0a889bcf95743ab9b3f762200b337b027f42d8332a2351a0e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $578,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $578,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 70,006$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.36 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 27c | 19,056$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092.28 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 17,225$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 27c | 15,293$4,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,142.96 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 6c | 13,850$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 21c | 13,706$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.68 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 11,095$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.34 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 8c | 7,619$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +428.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…99bebacked Yes | 9c | 6,550$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +223%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 1c | 6,368$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 79c | 6,152$4,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…0576backed Yes | 5c | 6,083$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +726.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 4,529$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.56 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 52c | 4,448$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.03 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 2c | 4,187$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 9c | 3,872$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.46 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,754$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.02 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 3,625$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.56 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 31c | 3,588$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.11 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 3,552$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 3,500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 5c | 3,430$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.17 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 29c | 3,378$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,180$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.12 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 3c | 3,117$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,788$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.8 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…5e86backed Yes | 6c | 2,774$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 11c | 2,755$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.64 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,741$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.32 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 2,738$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,606$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 4c | 2,591$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,508$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,503$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.17 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 21c | 2,431$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.67 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 24c | 2,386$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.25 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 7c | 2,321$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed Yes | 4c | 2,257$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +612.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 2,224$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 18c | 2,183$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.59 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 2,180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 39c | 2,113$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.57 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 20c | 2,061$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.09 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 31c | 1,905$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 15c | 1,877$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.37 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…a508backed Yes | 24c | 1,812$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,759$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 4c | 1,714$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 30c | 1,700$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.7 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 11c | 1,600$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…48c7backed Yes | 27c | 1,587$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 3c | 1,575$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +313.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 6c | 1,575$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 24c | 1,519$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.93 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 29c | 1,436$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.19 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 2c | 1,399$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 38c | 1,381$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.68 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 1,328$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f6a9backed Yes | 7c | 1,253$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 37c | 1,214$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.29 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 5c | 1,184$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,183$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 22c | 1,181$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.26 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 49c | 1,171$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.31 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 20c | 1,107$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.96 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed Yes | 18c | 1,100$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 1,086$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 47c | 1,033$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.68 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 4c | 1,025$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.4 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.95 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 34c | 993.17$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.97 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 8c | 981.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes | 6c | 968.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 29c | 939$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.75 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 2c | 917.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked Yes | 42c | 912.81$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…474cbacked Yes | 4c | 870.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 858.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 5c | 826.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc641…af27backed Yes | 5c | 809.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 6c | 786.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 10c | 773.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 18c | 750$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…2869backed Yes | 7c | 732.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +424.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 3c | 725.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 7c | 711.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 35c | 708.52$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 28c | 703.98$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.35 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 25c | 685.11$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.