Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dab99634ea64acec767f5abdf7a56a8bb75e35eef284e6f53b52fb12d98c7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 1c | 18,599$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 13c | 16,282$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.78 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 13,008$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.61 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 8,480$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.92 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 24c | 6,001$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 12c | 5,684$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.12 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,427$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,023$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…474cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,834$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 13c | 4,369$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.25 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,343$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.44 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 12c | 4,153$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 9c | 4,055$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.57 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 6c | 3,938$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 4c | 3,340$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 5c | 3,297$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.54 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 17c | 3,184$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.5 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…48c7backed Yes | 29c | 3,027$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,841$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.26 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 67c | 2,684$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.54 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 8c | 2,606$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 15c | 2,373$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.24 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 18c | 2,276$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,144$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.31 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 21c | 2,143$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.12 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed Yes | 7c | 2,114$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +612.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 14c | 1,908$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.16 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 31c | 1,897$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.15 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 8c | 1,878$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,584$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 33c | 1,519$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.16 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 27c | 1,506$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.76 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,487$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1e89backed Yes | 35c | 1,423$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,419$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 1,401$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,337$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 9c | 1,244$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 20c | 1,224$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.21 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…e34dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 35c | 1,136$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 9c | 1,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,100$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.07 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…6c76backed Yes | 23c | 1,061$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 13c | 1,048$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 1,033$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 941.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 2c | 917.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 7c | 849.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 26c | 837.88$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 16c | 825$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 17c | 807.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed Yes | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 785$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 18c | 784$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 9c | 762.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 750$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…58dabacked Yes | 14c | 737.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…abf8backed Yes | 13c | 733.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 699.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 10c | 693.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 15c | 688.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes | 15c | 670$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…2869backed Yes | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +424.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 12c | 621$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 10c | 599.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 18c | 596.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 3c | 580.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…f176backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 12c | 500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…66b8backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 15c | 484.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 21c | 465.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 10c | 438.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 4c | 435$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 15c | 414.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 10c | 401.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 17c | 400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 13c | 399.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 26c | 398$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed No | 70c | 396.12$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 15c | 390$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.