Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf662949964092e123d829e8f00e18e9850f420e2ae232a1342d3b0384d40e86d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $377,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $282,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 0c | 23,010$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 21,635$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.29 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,961$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe310…556cbacked Yes | 0c | 16,987$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…0576backed Yes | 1c | 10,079$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +726.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…0204backed Yes | 0c | 7,501$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 7,333$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 6,485$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.28 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 3c | 6,456$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.29 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 4,661$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 4c | 4,339$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 3,770$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 3,500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 3,087$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,942$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 3c | 1,706$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…7c7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,341$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 5c | 1,101$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 4c | 734.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…58dabacked Yes | 1c | 708.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…0423backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…31a8backed Yes | 4c | 561.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 4c | 523.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.