Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf8d35ccd8a72ccbd75642cf6fa22a8e99f17e4e454b6bfd6bc98837fdc15252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $471,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $280,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 12c | 22,605$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.99 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 18,809$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 7c | 16,206$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.6 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 11c | 15,117$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.27 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 11,246$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.93 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 11c | 11,208$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.13 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 10,908$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.71 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 18c | 10,188$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.24 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 12c | 6,355$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.98 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 6,020$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.33 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,916$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.79 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 9c | 5,500$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.99 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,986$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,250$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 18c | 4,097$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.84 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 12c | 3,549$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 3,527$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.29 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,521$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 6c | 3,206$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 26c | 3,084$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 10c | 2,760$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.36 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 25c | 2,731$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.14 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 10c | 2,691$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.01 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 10c | 2,554$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.42 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.16 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,449$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.35 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 2,344$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 3c | 2,160$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 10c | 2,094$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.42 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 16c | 2,061$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.19 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 30c | 2,033$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 7c | 2,007$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.99 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 16c | 1,923$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed Yes | 10c | 1,800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,683$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 1,659$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,627$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,623$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 5c | 1,611$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 10c | 1,575$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…4553backed Yes | 32c | 1,510$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 7c | 1,503$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,456$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1e89backed Yes | 34c | 1,452$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,374$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,350$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f6a9backed Yes | 14c | 1,292$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,218$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 21c | 1,192$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 4c | 1,183$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 25c | 1,170$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 31c | 1,150$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.12 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,147$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 9c | 1,115$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 20c | 1,098$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +428.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 11c | 1,066$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 10c | 1,047$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 4c | 999.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed Yes | 6c | 993.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +612.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes | 11c | 968$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 5c | 895.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 7c | 894.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…2869backed Yes | 11c | 892.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +424.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…99bebacked Yes | 11c | 873.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +223%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 78c | 846.03$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 36c | 824.63$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.89 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 12c | 783.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 15c | 782.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 13c | 765.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 758.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 9c | 745.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 14c | 742.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 8c | 704.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked Yes | 4c | 684.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 12c | 680.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…1148backed Yes | 16c | 662.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 4c | 648.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 9c | 641.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…0027backed Yes | 3c | 587.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…4dbdbacked Yes | 3c | 578.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes | 21c | 559.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 11c | 536.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 20c | 530$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…618cbacked Yes | 7c | 526.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 4c | 521.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…343fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 28c | 499.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 490$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 23c | 480.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.