Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5acea27b1676033b98976d24a73ecae30bb78f9b0ade085b09c93fb15b33f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe868…fd22backed Yes | 3c | 3,325$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 20c | 2,831$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.16 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 2,738$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…d23bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,738$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 9c | 2,311$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 3c | 1,210$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…a7d1backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 963.85$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.05 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…2d27backed Yes | 23c | 800$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed Yes | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 25c | 618$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 611.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 478.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked No | 78c | 468.43$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…8c52backed Yes | 21c | 428.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 80c | 412.33$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 16c | 411.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 3c | 396$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 78c | 395$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…d567backed Yes | 21c | 353.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…d8a6backed No | 79c | 347.66$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 324.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 322.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 11c | 320.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 27c | 315.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 15c | 306$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…95cfbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +693.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 255$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…c297backed Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cb7abacked Yes | 21c | 209.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…1a78backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…04a2backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 6c | 196.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 70c | 148$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…be2dbacked Yes | 20c | 135.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 107.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…e558backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…a459backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…16bdbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ec…ad28backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…178fbacked Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb63…98c6backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +185%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 66.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…52a5backed Yes | 19c | 52.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +678%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 50.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…3eb6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…3b83backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…f36fbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1995backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 42.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…ab8abacked No | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…2bd5backed No | 74c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…1318backed No | 80c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 8-11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.