TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x560a…2d27

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NBA, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 63 out of 100; worst UFC at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT2360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Carlos Prates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$798.11
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Caio Borralho · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+44.9%+$22.46
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Raul Rosas Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+38.9%+$19.44
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Drew Dober · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+75.4%+$37.72
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Gregory Rodrigues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$33.33
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Alberto Montes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+56.3%+$28.13
UFC 326: Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$33.33
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Zellhuber · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.67
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Perez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+58.5%+$11.7
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$120
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Geoff Neal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+51.8%+$88.14
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Delija · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Jacobe Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+33.3%+$16.67
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Njokuani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Osbourne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Coria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22.56
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Nora Cornolle (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Edwards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+31.6%+$15.79
UFC Fight Night: Phil Rowe vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+51.5%+$25.76
UFC Fight Night: Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims)backed del Valle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 23 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT2281.8%18 W · 4 L+5.6wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+58.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+201.8%+$322.85
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$146.41
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$575.4
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$35.98
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+74.1%+$222.35
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+400%+$140
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.09
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+47.1%+$9.41
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+44.3%+$8.85
Thunder vs. Raptorsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+92.3%+$23.08
Celtics vs. Sunsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+81.8%+$163.64
Knicks vs. Bullsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+25%+$2.5
Celtics vs. Warriorsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Magic vs. Kingsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$7.4
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+47%+$11.75
All 22 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1675%12 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexican Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Mexican Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Flavio Cobollibacked Miomir Kecmanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Daniil Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+81.8%+$81.82
Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Chile Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Ignacio Busebacked Tirante · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+216.6%+$216.64
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Ignacio Busebacked Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+72.4%+$36.21
Delray Beach Open: Tommy Paul vs Learner Tienbacked Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$31.97
Delray Beach Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Coleman Wongbacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Rio Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Vit Koprivabacked Burruchaga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Qatar Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+66.7%+$33.33
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Belinda Bencic vs Elina Svitolinabacked Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+84.1%+$42.03
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Janice Tjen vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+25%+$12.5
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Juncheng Shangbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.99
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Sofia Kenin vs Clara Tausonbacked Tauson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+37%+$5.55
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Varvara Gracheva vs Rebecca Sramkovabacked Gracheva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+72.4%+$10.86
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Iva Jovic vs Kamilla Rakhimovabacked Jovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+25%+$3.75
All 16 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+160%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$5.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.