UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16307f83b947ad3d5d9eaf44a444222a66792fa60f9d3fcdfb2d482d3a164608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacobe Smithof Josiah Harrell, Jacobe Smith
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $473,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $480,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Jacobe Smith | 73c | 285,365$209,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,237.95 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 173,179$45,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,591.33 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 64,238$17,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,344.36 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 53,266$39,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,249.11 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Josiah Harrell | 29c | 28,054$8,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Josiah Harrell | 27c | 23,300$6,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,291 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 20,014$5,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,203.52 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb788…2b73backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 13,485$3,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,641 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…38e2backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 10,146$7,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 10,028$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.87 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 7,000$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.98 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 6,000$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Jacobe Smith | 71c | 5,449$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.57 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 5,400$3,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Josiah Harrell | 29c | 5,000$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 4,500$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Josiah Harrell | 25c | 4,452$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.98 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 4,054$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.05 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 3,870$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.98 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Josiah Harrell | 28c | 3,600$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 3,536$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 3,425$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.45 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b3…abccbacked Josiah Harrell | 30c | 3,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jacobe Smith | 76c | 3,000$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.3 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Josiah Harrell | 28c | 2,760$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.8 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Jacobe Smith | 72c | 2,499$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.72 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…6280backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 2,430$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Josiah Harrell | 27c | 2,070$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Josiah Harrell | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 1,761$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.68 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 1,438$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.88 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Jacobe Smith | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Josiah Harrell | 28c | 1,400$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 1,352$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.1 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 1,346$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Josiah Harrell | 25c | 1,330$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Josiah Harrell | 28c | 1,297$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.21 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Josiah Harrell | 27c | 1,242$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.34 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Josiah Harrell | 24c | 1,080$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Josiah Harrell | 24c | 1,022$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.39 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 1,018$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Jacobe Smith | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jacobe Smith | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Josiah Harrell | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Jacobe Smith | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Jacobe Smith | 72c | 900$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Josiah Harrell | 7c | 833.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Jacobe Smith | 71c | 819.97$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.79 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Josiah Harrell | 31c | 808.39$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 728.28$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Josiah Harrell | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Josiah Harrell | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…ea0fbacked Jacobe Smith | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Jacobe Smith | 73c | 650$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Jacobe Smith | 72c | 589.26$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Jacobe Smith | 73c | 550$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 522.55$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 454.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Jacobe Smith | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Jacobe Smith | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…8c92backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Josiah Harrell | 29c | 399.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2d…6443backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 360$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Jacobe Smith | 72c | 350$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…3c33backed Josiah Harrell | 29c | 349.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Josiah Harrell | 27c | 345$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 337.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 310.65$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 309.03$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Jacobe Smith | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 285.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Josiah Harrell | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed Jacobe Smith | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…602cbacked Jacobe Smith | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…72d2backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 262.04$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Jacobe Smith | 71c | 238.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Josiah Harrell | 19c | 210.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…ff9cbacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 201.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Josiah Harrell | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1a…bf0abacked Jacobe Smith | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Josiah Harrell | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Jacobe Smith | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Jacobe Smith | 75c | 192.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…2c15backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 190.74$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Jacobe Smith | 70c | 174.9$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 171.88$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…e3c2backed Jacobe Smith | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Jacobe Smith | 74c | 162.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…f14cbacked Jacobe Smith | 73c | 152.23$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Jacobe Smith | 75c | 152$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…b81ebacked Jacobe Smith | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Josiah Harrell | 26c | 149.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Jacobe Smith | 74c | 147$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Jacobe Smith | 72c | 140.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Jacobe Smith win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.