TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,011,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,274,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,011,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 807 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Kings25c600,830$148,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148,552.1543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Magic75c156,780$117,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,196.896657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Kings27c153,969$41,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,492.5416752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Magic78c132,558$103,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,584.3719653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Kings24c105,497$25,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,700.9651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Magic76c100,000$75,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,300.1623257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic74c94,648$70,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,387.74,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic76c64,482$48,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,586.241,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Magic74c63,443$46,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,569.0859653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic76c56,482$42,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,552.164,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed Kings18c55,389$9,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,967.9990%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc311…44fcbacked Magic62c49,432$30,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,710.283135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Magic76c41,000$31,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,84019754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic73c35,284$25,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,442.481,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic73c32,472$23,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,728.541,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings30c26,409$7,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,958.334,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Magic75c25,199$18,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,343.5551354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic68c23,914$16,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,634.411,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Kings52c23,256$11,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,996.5412740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic73c21,898$16,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,876.843,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Magic68c19,354$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,154.13271.9%23 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic75c18,034$13,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,565.423,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic75c16,271$12,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,042.042,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic77c15,334$11,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,484.621,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Kings23c15,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.9945850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Magic77c14,437$11,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,282.097850%39 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Magic74c14,053$10,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.6526949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd915…1d54backed Magic77c13,000$10,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9902965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe6e…ddf7backed Kings23c12,930$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.853129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic77c12,620$9,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.949,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic72c12,232$8,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,430.753,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Magic77c12,000$9,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.821,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Magic68c11,000$7,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,52013625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Kings23c10,261$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.9628742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic78c10,129$7,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.735,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic73c10,124$7,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,694.28,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Magic74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Magic75c9,903$7,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.9672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Magic79c9,635$7,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.1229352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Kings24c9,479$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.057941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic75c8,978$6,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.1892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kings19c8,683$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.852,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Magic73c8,067$5,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,177.2923256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Magic76c8,000$6,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Kings1c7,148$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7642348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Kings24c7,000$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.9835251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Kings26c6,889$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.4726640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eab…a408backed Kings29c6,877$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Magic77c6,513$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.238662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings21c6,387$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.451,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Magic73c6,207$4,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.936459.4%38 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Kings24c6,167$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57aa…de31backed Magic57c6,157$3,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Magic76c6,131$4,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.4448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Kings1c5,922$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7667911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Magic52c5,772$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.2231044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Kings23c5,265$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.012642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Kings24c5,193$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.2241832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Kings0c5,157$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.068820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Kings23c5,000$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.8225947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Magic76c5,000$3,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Kings24c4,989$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20815141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings25c4,850$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Magic77c4,777$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.4971449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Kings28c4,724$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30038046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Magic76c4,605$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.268953.9%48 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Magic76c4,549$3,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.7127758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Magic74c4,512$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.6633428.1%94 W · 240 L-20.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Kings39c4,383$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.9689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic77c4,091$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95148956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Magic76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Magic76c4,000$3,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.9938649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Magic79c3,946$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.8646940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a70…f85fbacked Magic73c3,800$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f62…65d8backed Kings28c3,780$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.1613836.2%50 W · 88 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Kings24c3,719$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90035438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Kings17c3,671$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.7516440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Kings48c3,594$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.345846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Kings13c3,233$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.671,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c0…c7c0backed Magic77c3,205$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.161030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Magic76c3,201$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.4914663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Magic80c3,188$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.5838540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings28c3,174$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.993,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Kings21c3,081$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.620838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Kings31c3,052$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.7824038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Magic77c2,843$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.0242335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Kings16c2,824$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44015034.7%52 W · 98 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Magic54c2,754$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.3313155%72 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Kings26c2,685$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.8236718.5%68 W · 299 L-36.8wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Magic72c2,599$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.5939349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d9…e693backed Kings1c2,550$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211690%0 W · 169 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x735b…acb1backed Magic75c2,504$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3808…b5b8backed Kings24c2,496$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Magic76c2,482$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.5736950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Magic69c2,466$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.145350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Kings49c2,314$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.064050%20 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Magic73c2,277$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.8540243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Magic62c2,258$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.049354.8%51 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic77c2,190$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.833,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.