TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead0…f3babacked Under51c7,500$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6751,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over49c4,405$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.661,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Over49c3,007$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.5129352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Under52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96011653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over48c1,828$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.4692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over50c1,512$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.4251354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…7300backed Over1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108540%34 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbb…59fcbacked Over65c602$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.17955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c556.83$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.413,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under29c456.05$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.7953149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over62c453.34$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.278,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under50c448.56$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.632,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Under42c303.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.554553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under8c262.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.8235326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Under50c225.2$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.677348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfff…cbddbacked Under77c189.29$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+73.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over75c182.79$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.393,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under46c151.84$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8495452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Under33c133.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5638347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over66c127.46$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.051,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over65c118.24$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.861,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over31c100.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.976653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under51c98.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.032,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca9…37d8backed Under53c94.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.263764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over25c82.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.321,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over61c68.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0666646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Over49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5214151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over49c39.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.312544%11 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf095…111bbacked Under53c36.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1211250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Over50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.536350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under44c24.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.813,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Over61c24.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8945653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.