NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x368563a6d7936ac6a9fb9895a0b73dc67a17f8daea90784ae5f79fec2721767f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 4,405$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.66 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 49c | 3,007$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.51 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 1,828$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.46 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 50c | 1,512$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.42 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…59fcbacked Over | 65c | 602$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 556.83$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.41 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 29c | 456.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.79 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 453.34$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 448.56$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.63 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 42c | 303.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.55 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 8c | 262.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 50c | 225.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfff…cbddbacked Under | 77c | 189.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 75c | 182.79$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 46c | 151.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 33c | 133.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 66c | 127.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 65c | 118.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 31c | 100.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Under | 53c | 94.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 25c | 82.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 61c | 68.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over | 49c | 39.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 53c | 36.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 24.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 61c | 24.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Magic vs. KingsMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.