NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf710829a283ff15c929308b72bae944cd6c1e0142820dab964a508dbb11962b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Kings | 60c | 4,286$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.99 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 67c | 1,958$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 40c | 1,747$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 43c | 1,634$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Magic | 39c | 1,270$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.7 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic | 39c | 744.16$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.66 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Magic | 35c | 674.47$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.79 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 55c | 482.16$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Kings | 60c | 449.34$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.6 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 3c | 417.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 41c | 340.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.45 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Kings | 52c | 215.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Magic | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 42c | 201.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Kings | 64c | 173.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cc…5a59backed Magic | 38c | 164.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 61c | 161.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Magic | 40c | 159$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Magic | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Magic | 41c | 126.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Magic | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Kings | 69c | 105.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Kings | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Kings | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Kings | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Magic | 13c | 90.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Magic | 44c | 90.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Magic | 40c | 86.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Magic | 50c | 85.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Kings | 59c | 85.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Kings | 60c | 67.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Magic | 47c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Magic | 45c | 66.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Magic | 33c | 65.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Magic | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Magic | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Kings | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Magic | 40c | 37.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kings | 59c | 34.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Magic | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…60e2backed Magic | 39c | 34.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Kings | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kings | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Magic | 45c | 28.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…0fe0backed Magic | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic | 63c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Magic | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Magic | 64c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked Kings | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Magic vs. KingsMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.