NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0642327b6aeeaf5b8d3de593e0802660ce14308b2980bdc9045a0d8247846f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Under | 48c | 10,505$5,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,012.3 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 53c | 6,565$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.76 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 48c | 4,917$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562.93 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 4,531$2,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 55c | 3,035$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.99 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 41c | 3,023$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.85 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 58c | 2,734$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 49c | 1,318$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 52c | 1,238$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.46 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 1,232$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.36 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 869.3$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Over | 49c | 842.04$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.84 | 175 | 50.9%89 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 51c | 793$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.39 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 632.08$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.08 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 524$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 26c | 442.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.26 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 52c | 424$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 207.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 202.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 152.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 150.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 149.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Over | 52c | 79.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Over | 49c | 76.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…61debacked Over | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 55.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 49c | 53.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 44.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 43c | 44.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…36ffbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…de71backed Under | 59c | 34.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 53c | 31.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 50c | 31.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 53c | 28.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 49c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…e370backed Over | 50c | 27.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…42bbbacked Under | 51c | 27.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 49c | 25.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 49c | 23.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 323 | 52.6%170 W · 153 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 54c | 21.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 224.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Magic vs. KingsMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.