NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a540e142232b4270a319bbe154a9102b6cf9ce921e8f443cc5336f65b930cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Kings | 52c | 5,193$2,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,722.22 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 48c | 4,481$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Kings | 53c | 1,547$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.91 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Magic | 47c | 1,545$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.85 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Kings | 57c | 1,165$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.79 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 43c | 1,022$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.54 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Magic | 50c | 742.8$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.39 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 48c | 705.46$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Kings | 55c | 555$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.25 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Kings | 55c | 551.29$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.71 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Kings | 57c | 453.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 45c | 437.24$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 45c | 425.04$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.77 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Kings | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Magic | 46c | 378.89$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.89 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 54c | 320.15$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Kings | 53c | 308.48$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.49 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic | 44c | 300.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.73 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Kings | 53c | 300.2$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 45c | 269.58$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Kings | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Magic | 44c | 225.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 46c | 219.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 44c | 176.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Kings | 53c | 169.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Kings | 52c | 152.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Magic | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…6c31backed Magic | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Kings | 57c | 97.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Magic | 46c | 94.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Magic | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Magic | 45c | 82.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Kings | 55c | 79.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 54c | 76.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…1af6backed Magic | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Magic | 47c | 44.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Magic | 45c | 42.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…4b40backed Magic | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e3…8796backed Magic | 46c | 32.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kings | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Kings | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…7372backed Magic | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Magic | 45c | 26.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…314dbacked Kings | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Magic | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Magic | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Kings | 56c | 22.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Magic | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Kings | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Kings | 56c | 19.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Magic vs. KingsMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.