NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f70ca6d7347a3c1894f67e978815d0e60ba283d74bd116a8c0820d535af4cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 50c | 5,331$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,665.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Magic | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Kings | 57c | 2,782$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.36 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 42c | 2,393$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Magic | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.78 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 45c | 1,044$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.18 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 61c | 844.4$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.05 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 43c | 725.15$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.68 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Kings | 55c | 637.29$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.51 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Magic | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Kings | 57c | 488.66$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.54 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Magic | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…da6dbacked Magic | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 52c | 314.33$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Magic | 43c | 280$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kings | 53c | 272.05$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Kings | 51c | 201.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Magic | 43c | 188.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 49c | 188.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Kings | 57c | 169.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Kings | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 433 | 52.2%226 W · 207 L | +19.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Magic | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Magic | 46c | 124.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Magic | 43c | 119.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Magic | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Kings | 58c | 117.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Kings | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Magic | 45c | 87.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Magic | 45c | 86.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Magic | 39c | 84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Magic | 43c | 80.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Magic | 46c | 65.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 42c | 64.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Magic | 44c | 60.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Magic | 44c | 55.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Kings | 56c | 53.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kings | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Magic | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Kings | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Kings | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Magic | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Magic | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…7528backed Magic | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -11.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Magic | 43c | 32.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Kings | 53c | 31.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Magic | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Kings | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kings | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic | 49c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…04bbbacked Magic | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Kings | 58c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Kings | 59c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Kings | 47c | 22.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Magic vs. KingsMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Under won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.