NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712ffb21db92136a4c7b44a56a6a523c36dd44a60f0827ef353ce4f15b803df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Over | 1c | 5,707$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…960cbacked Over | 5c | 2,600$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +421.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,936$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,686$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 45c | 1,577$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.71 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 1,501$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.01 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 1,442$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.42 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 946$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.92 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 932.93$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.47 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 11c | 909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Over | 47c | 859.26$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.76 | 175 | 50.9%89 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Under | 49c | 848.4$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.68 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 828.12$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.66 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 51c | 809$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.59 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 408.87$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Under | 51c | 398.04$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 220 | 36.8%81 W · 139 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 48c | 323.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 51c | 296.47$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 278.06$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 6c | 262.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 51c | 221.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 194.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 7c | 190.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 165.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 114.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 83.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 48c | 63.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Over | 50c | 45.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Over | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 38c | 35.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfff…cbddbacked Under | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Magic vs. KingsMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.