TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,900 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Magic38c2,975$1,133 inWon+$1,841.868,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kings70c1,956$1,365 inLost-$1,364.613,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings57c1,256$718 inLost-$717.919,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic43c995.96$428 inWon+$567.614,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Kings44c636.75$282 inLost-$282.4120838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…30d3backed Magic39c547.12$212 inWon+$335.241040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Kings64c299.99$192 inLost-$19211245.5%51 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic35c283.5$100 inWon+$183.543,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Magic30c251$76 inWon+$175.2366646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic39c250.54$97 inWon+$153.974,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kings61c226.33$138 inLost-$138.156,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Kings65c185.99$120 inLost-$1201,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Magic36c138.88$50 inWon+$88.882,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic35c134.78$47 inWon+$87.643,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Magic33c89.47$30 inWon+$59.681,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Kings66c72.53$48 inLost-$47.5749358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Magic36c69.74$25 inWon+$44.6487453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic40c68.12$27 inWon+$40.753,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Kings62c57.73$36 inLost-$35.8223845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Kings66c47$31 inLost-$31.0247045.1%212 W · 258 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Kings62c41.22$26 inLost-$25.6288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Magic38c39.47$15 inWon+$24.4729348.5%142 W · 151 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Kings66c37.65$25 inLost-$2524358%141 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Magic39c35.36$14 inWon+$21.430151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Magic33c31$10 inWon+$20.771,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.