TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Idirisof Osbourne, Idiris
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$527,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$622,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6211…b89ebacked Idiris56c88,128$49,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,776.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Osbourne45c80,969$36,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,781.235655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Osbourne45c70,000$31,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,399.855440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Osbourne44c68,400$30,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0969240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Idiris55c45,000$24,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,249.9922259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Idiris55c40,003$22,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,001.619154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Idiris54c40,000$21,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,399.9916244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Idiris55c22,898$12,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,304.1419544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Idiris54c22,844$12,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,430.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Idiris55c22,227$12,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,102.2335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Osbourne44c19,690$8,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,663.67534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Osbourne44c18,805$8,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,358.7314558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Osbourne2c16,670$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.78434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Osbourne46c15,800$7,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,259.8216049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb788…2b73backed Osbourne45c11,111$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Osbourne45c11,102$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,995.715632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Idiris56c10,714$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,714.298360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Osbourne45c9,709$4,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,369.0628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Idiris57c7,000$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0105653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Osbourne45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7006738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Osbourne14c5,938$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.5715939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Idiris53c5,678$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.816850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Idiris55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Idiris67c4,837$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.6428143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Osbourne46c4,769$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2008058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88fc…099dbacked Idiris55c3,783$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Osbourne43c3,600$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54813735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Osbourne34c3,281$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.258840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Idiris55c3,115$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.2414237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Osbourne46c3,014$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.445050%25 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf81…80cebacked Idiris56c2,853$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Osbourne44c2,720$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.84839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Idiris55c2,672$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.795650%28 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Idiris55c2,517$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.053964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Idiris54c2,370$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.29247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Idiris56c2,301$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.444946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Osbourne46c2,194$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Idiris55c2,100$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53e…1aa3backed Osbourne1c2,041$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Idiris54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9207052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Osbourne44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88020954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Osbourne45c1,858$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.99228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Idiris55c1,764$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.642445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Osbourne45c1,621$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.548835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Idiris53c1,621$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Osbourne45c1,476$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.24425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Idiris54c1,296$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.38650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3754…2d4ebacked Idiris64c1,249$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Osbourne44c1,172$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.3142254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Osbourne29c1,149$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.971154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Osbourne45c1,018$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.5416945.6%77 W · 92 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf338…38e2backed Idiris71c1,005$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.575100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Osbourne44c999.94$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.9721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Idiris53c929.32$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.7890553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Idiris54c925$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Osbourne29c910$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.95541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Osbourne43c835.22$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.9518038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Osbourne32c816.74$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1137854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Osbourne12c816$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.085736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Idiris55c763.64$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.6418644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Idiris57c750$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.52646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeaf…f14bbacked Idiris55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Osbourne43c700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed Idiris57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Osbourne29c666.93$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4514530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Osbourne45c666$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.78622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f6f…2390backed Osbourne46c650$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedea…8b39backed Osbourne7c616$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.714042.5%17 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Osbourne47c600$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28236745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Idiris56c553.57$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.571850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Idiris58c532.55$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.676346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbcd…7ab2backed Idiris55c526$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.11546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Osbourne47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2354153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…cdb2backed Idiris54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc506…abb0backed Osbourne47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Osbourne46c499.98$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9922661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Idiris54c497.76$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.973754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Osbourne27c490.65$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9230964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda40…6938backed Osbourne46c480$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dbd…2a12backed Osbourne3c477.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Osbourne42c463.87$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.352871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Idiris57c438.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.629948.8%146 W · 153 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Idiris58c436.52$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.346063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9756…1a82backed Idiris55c430$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Osbourne24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Idiris55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1808856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Osbourne39c380.49$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Idiris57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8826140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5b…a699backed Osbourne22c335.71$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Idiris61c328.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.25149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Idiris54c326.65$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8314643.8%64 W · 82 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x208c…b132backed Idiris55c326.24$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.81520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked Osbourne47c322.79$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.259459.6%56 W · 38 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Idiris73c315.28$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5322438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Idiris54c315.07$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Idiris55c306.89$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.130039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Osbourne47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick55cpaid-75.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Osbourne46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Osbourne45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13535764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Osbourne45c298.59$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3712147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.