TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc506…abb0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
139
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: UFC, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT6634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$355
Hawks vs. Mavericksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$33.6
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.13
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Thunder vs. Magicbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$8.4
Magic vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$35.04
Grizzlies vs. Bullsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.4
Suns vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Trail Blazers vs. Netsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$129.99
Mavericks vs. Cavaliersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+900%+$450
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$73.2
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$188.24
Magic vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Wizards vs. Celticsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.5
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5.75
Nets vs. 76ersbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.65
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.52
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.16
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT6250%31 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Penguinsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$129.6
Blue Jackets vs. Islandersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.52
Avalanche vs. Capitalsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$151.6
Jets vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.75
Lightning vs. Oilersbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$29.48
Islanders vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.22
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.76
Rangers vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$67.98
Islanders vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$152.55
Flyers vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.68
Penguins vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$98
Senators vs. Capitalsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
Predators vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.25
Bruins vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Wild vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.04
Sabres vs. Golden Knightsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$265
Panthers vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$272.46
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.24
Islanders vs. Maple Leafsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$55.04
Flames vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$190
Kings vs. Rangersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$12.96
Maple Leafs vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.9
Ducks vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$290
Sharks vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$44.2
Blues vs. Jetsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.96
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lerone Murphy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.16
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Sam Patterson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mason Jones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$63.48
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ion Cutelaba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$85.12
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+168.5%+$23.22
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Drew Dober · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+108.3%+$88.4
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Ricky Turcios · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$29.64
UFC 326: Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Cody Durden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$45.6
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Spivac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$260
UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Osbourne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$235
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Nora Cornolle (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Cornolle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.75
All 11 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.