TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Hurricanes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Penguins, Hurricanes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,563,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,563,563 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,481 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Penguins49c198,104$96,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,322.2219848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Penguins40c126,041$50,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,257.648545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Penguins43c122,646$52,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,860.5767051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Hurricanes55c100,000$55,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,999.9922443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hurricanes58c72,193$42,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,074.2940351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Hurricanes52c63,103$32,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,582.381,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes56c49,489$27,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,830.2861950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Penguins36c44,206$15,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,970.1741850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0fa…4c42backed Hurricanes59c40,000$23,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Hurricanes73c33,313$24,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,928.71,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Hurricanes60c31,614$19,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,490.4927448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Penguins45c28,642$12,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,789.681,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Hurricanes53c28,064$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,064.3112835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Hurricanes53c22,350$11,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,555.7832744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Penguins45c21,000$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,450955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Hurricanes56c18,058$10,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,945.32564%16 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Hurricanes56c15,395$8,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,773.624957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Hurricanes55c15,000$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,749.7910743%46 W · 61 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8d7…1252backed Hurricanes79c14,971$11,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,121.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Hurricanes56c13,287$7,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,791.2251452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hurricanes58c12,418$7,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,214.011,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Hurricanes58c11,950$6,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,01915949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hurricanes55c11,415$6,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,081.0747951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Penguins41c10,369$4,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,251.1815054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x138a…9e2fbacked Penguins0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Penguins44c9,924$4,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,366.3951550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Penguins43c8,227$3,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,546.7789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins43c8,000$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4401,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Hurricanes59c8,000$4,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,31043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Penguins44c7,858$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,457.5936748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins41c7,463$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060.021,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hurricanes55c7,324$4,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.612,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hurricanes59c7,152$4,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.0260249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Penguins41c6,436$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.7326058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Hurricanes59c6,400$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,62827850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins43c6,155$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.421,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Penguins43c5,934$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.750049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Hurricanes55c5,400$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4308252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Hurricanes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.8711553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Penguins42c4,989$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.2627243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac4d…8e7ebacked Hurricanes56c4,550$2,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0021172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed Hurricanes56c4,532$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.263964.1%25 W · 14 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+54.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Penguins45c4,500$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02515749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Penguins45c4,444$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Hurricanes79c4,310$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.017949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Penguins41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Hurricanes55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9939752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221d…e800backed Hurricanes74c3,824$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.416657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hurricanes59c3,616$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.9662249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Hurricanes57c3,444$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.4715057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Penguins45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Penguins45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Penguins20c2,992$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hurricanes55c2,966$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.7745751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Penguins44c2,934$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9175…d70fbacked Hurricanes52c2,579$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.062548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes57c2,515$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.362,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Penguins43c2,500$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.9860337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f85…7eeebacked Hurricanes56c2,495$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.64944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Hurricanes55c2,222$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.991945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Hurricanes56c2,184$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.726538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Penguins46c2,175$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.515145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf24a…35d3backed Hurricanes56c2,131$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Penguins43c2,099$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.761,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Penguins44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hurricanes15c2,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Penguins44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88089249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Penguins1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed Penguins2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+809.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Penguins41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8202045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2187…a14cbacked Hurricanes61c1,995$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.051050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176b…8878backed Penguins39c1,995$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47d3…128ebacked Hurricanes61c1,995$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.051136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe423…c5bbbacked Hurricanes61c1,995$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.05850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5ef7…d6abbacked Penguins39c1,995$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942d…207bbacked Hurricanes61c1,995$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc489…394dbacked Hurricanes61c1,995$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e0…55afbacked Penguins39c1,995$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067d…f0b1backed Penguins39c1,995$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe13f…8151backed Penguins39c1,995$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabef…f37fbacked Penguins39c1,990$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.1825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x418c…b7dabacked Hurricanes61c1,990$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1550…311dbacked Hurricanes61c1,990$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc987…005ebacked Penguins39c1,990$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.11040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0016…182cbacked Hurricanes61c1,990$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.11070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…2ee8backed Penguins39c1,990$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.1850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf18…37fbbacked Hurricanes61c1,985$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.15850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaf…659ebacked Penguins39c1,985$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bec…d2c3backed Hurricanes61c1,980$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e56…9a66backed Penguins39c1,980$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…d9f1backed Hurricanes61c1,980$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.21040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a38…80ddbacked Penguins39c1,980$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebbe…9e28backed Hurricanes61c1,980$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f39…7ea6backed Penguins39c1,980$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.21250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa569…0319backed Hurricanes61c1,975$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.251050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6450…9de0backed Penguins39c1,975$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60bb…b4debacked Penguins39c1,970$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ad…ce7cbacked Hurricanes61c1,970$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Hurricanes56c1,970$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.645855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Penguins45c1,967$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.622,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.