NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f259c1bfec392b6222ca9d297cb2aa2c7153c55001d73b139b3a2c4496f2f4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 38c | 4,099$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.64 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…04b7backed Over | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 62c | 1,175$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.32 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 60c | 932.48$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.99 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 820.03$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.44 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 43c | 608.95$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.68 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 38c | 518.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 46c | 513.67$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.62 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 50c | 369.61$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.31 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 61c | 274$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 61c | 214.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 62c | 190$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 48c | 186$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…400bbacked Over | 62c | 159.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 47c | 156$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 61c | 138.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 39c | 129.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 13c | 126.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 62c | 112$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 39c | 90.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 41c | 86.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 38c | 75.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 69.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 57c | 68.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 66.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Under | 32c | 59.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 54c | 52.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 29c | 49.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 44.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 40.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 46c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Under | 43c | 37.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Under | 41c | 37.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 40c | 30.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 62c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…a8e1backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Over | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 43c | 23.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.