NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd318ddd6499aef622ee03110433a93892cb17d32b94fffd40cc36cafb699b411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,463 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 26c | 1,219$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.97 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 73c | 884.34$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.57 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 55c | 432$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.72 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 78c | 342$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.76 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Over | 29c | 275.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.86 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7705backed Under | 72c | 244$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 46c | 241.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.77 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…3630backed Under | 72c | 234$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…5589backed Over | 28c | 207$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 26c | 204.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…9fc9backed Over | 28c | 173$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe986…5d49backed Under | 72c | 170$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…25cdbacked Over | 28c | 158$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 28c | 137.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Under | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…5f69backed Over | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 105.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 89.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 76c | 70.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 59c | 44.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 30c | 35.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 72c | 25.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Over | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Under | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5this page
- Penguins vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.