TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Avalanche vs. Capitals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Avalancheof Avalanche, Capitals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$704,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $704,821 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 543 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bec…b215backed Capitals40c286,687$113,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,981.8316442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Avalanche60c174,870$105,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,685.3467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Avalanche60c73,911$44,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,575.3840351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Avalanche61c65,000$39,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,6001968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Capitals48c31,333$14,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,903.0412835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche60c20,965$12,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,355.951,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Capitals41c20,466$8,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,390.4527448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Capitals39c18,272$7,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,130.0761950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Capitals39c10,256$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Avalanche43c10,096$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,796.312838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Avalanche61c9,000$5,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,51026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Avalanche60c8,629$5,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.8436648.6%178 W · 188 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Capitals10c8,212$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.72270%0 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Capitals38c7,604$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.481,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Capitals40c7,000$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,779.9130552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Capitals39c6,613$2,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.933354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Capitals39c6,178$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.871,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche60c5,297$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.886852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Capitals39c5,008$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9535949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Avalanche52c4,915$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.071,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239a…785ebacked Capitals39c4,872$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Avalanche59c4,690$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,922.7251550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed Capitals41c4,592$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.762846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche53c4,468$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.042,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Avalanche61c4,237$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.4161748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Avalanche56c4,094$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.5299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5b…cd24backed Avalanche61c3,800$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.953100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Avalanche59c3,365$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.025251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Avalanche61c3,277$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.0532151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Avalanche62c3,253$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.2385250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Capitals39c3,220$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.764242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals41c3,219$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.951,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…87edbacked Avalanche61c3,201$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Avalanche63c3,043$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.281,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20089249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Capitals40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Capitals40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Capitals41c2,994$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Capitals39c2,955$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche60c2,826$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.42,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Capitals40c2,800$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Capitals60c2,797$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.61,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals51c2,673$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.641,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche52c2,533$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.062,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Capitals54c2,265$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.8830348.8%148 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals40c2,222$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.891945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Avalanche60c2,195$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.0545751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Capitals48c2,167$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.273,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Avalanche61c2,164$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.937149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa668…36a0backed Capitals39c2,129$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.12785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+62.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Capitals1c2,093$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Avalanche51c2,073$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.099442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf52b…905bbacked Avalanche56c2,063$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Avalanche61c2,061$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Capitals39c2,060$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.444551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Avalanche62c2,041$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.583253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Capitals40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Capitals41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed Capitals2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+809.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Capitals40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Capitals39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9925447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Capitals58c1,923$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.4214757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Capitals38c1,912$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.4589355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Avalanche51c1,834$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.7927739.4%109 W · 168 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Capitals41c1,690$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.946246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Avalanche60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.672857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec9…02f6backed Capitals39c1,623$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Capitals41c1,574$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.1395049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Capitals39c1,540$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.612436.3%45 W · 79 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Capitals40c1,420$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.5266552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd227…1c59backed Avalanche34c1,412$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Capitals34c1,350$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.0960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Capitals41c1,250$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.924339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Capitals64c1,250$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8006946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Avalanche69c1,212$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.0952172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Avalanche60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Avalanche60c1,200$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47633652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Avalanche49c1,178$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.5811547%54 W · 61 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Avalanche63c1,101$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.1617353.8%93 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5886…fe3bbacked Capitals2c1,027$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Capitals41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41062249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7feb…59e7backed Avalanche59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Capitals40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025052.8%132 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Capitals1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda60…9126backed Capitals41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-69.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Capitals1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-25.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Avalanche34c984.52$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.5230657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Avalanche42c948.82$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.341833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Capitals39c939.7$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.4820552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Avalanche45c899.99$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.3957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Avalanche56c888.96$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.1419645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Capitals39c868.53$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.7338849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Avalanche58c857.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.098345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Avalanche51c836.89$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.4827037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Avalanche62c835.24$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.41,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Avalanche60c830.54$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.2591653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked Avalanche54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3681741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc2…b3b6backed Capitals43c740.67$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b9…41a9backed Avalanche47c725.14$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.6123159.3%137 W · 94 L+22.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Capitals43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011045.5%50 W · 60 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.