NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59984172b0f83bb633192dc978a180c9467678dea99d18c09b63598cc0adefcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Avalanche, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,881 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Avalanche | 38c | 8,839$3,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,378.5 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals | 63c | 2,222$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.14 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Capitals | 60c | 2,203$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.24 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed Capitals | 63c | 1,390$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.3 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Capitals | 61c | 725.87$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.02 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…9e0bbacked Avalanche | 39c | 670$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Capitals | 77c | 666.14$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Capitals | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Avalanche | 20c | 414.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Avalanche | 21c | 400.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be5…603dbacked Avalanche | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Capitals | 62c | 373$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Avalanche | 7c | 350$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…b8e2backed Capitals | 63c | 350$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 37c | 319.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals | 61c | 299.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche | 13c | 245$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…ac05backed Capitals | 63c | 219.44$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Capitals | 61c | 200.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Avalanche | 38c | 192.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f3…e4a1backed Capitals | 62c | 190.74$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Capitals | 63c | 187.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Capitals | 61c | 172$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Capitals | 62c | 169.18$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Capitals | 63c | 156.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Avalanche | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Capitals | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Avalanche | 36c | 116.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Capitals | 62c | 116.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Capitals | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Avalanche | 27c | 110.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd49a…7c65backed Avalanche | 14c | 109.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Capitals | 60c | 108.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Avalanche | 39c | 101.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Capitals | 60c | 81.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Capitals | 62c | 81.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 64c | 79.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Avalanche | 18c | 68.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…bb26backed Capitals | 61c | 66.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…dc22backed Capitals | 62c | 65.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Avalanche | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Avalanche | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Capitals | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Capitals | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Capitals | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Capitals | 60c | 31.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Capitals | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed Capitals | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Capitals | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Capitals | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Capitals | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Capitals | 63c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. CapitalsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.