NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e36ac8a3005377ba634049e0fd7f518959082735d0382f00fb49d450ed64526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,603 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,199.99 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 10,795$4,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,045.68 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 44c | 8,711$3,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,878.08 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 45c | 4,446$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.35 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 56c | 4,393$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.89 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 3,454$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.75 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 2,976$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.79 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 44c | 1,111$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.16 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 50c | 743.62$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.41 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 733.11$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.54 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 56c | 710$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.6 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 584.76$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.73 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 57c | 550$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.54 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 50c | 238$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Over | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 49c | 225.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 216.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 30c | 171.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 50c | 163.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 51c | 148.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 146.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 144.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 58c | 138.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 70c | 137.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 57c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Under | 56c | 106.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Under | 43c | 63.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 45c | 61.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Under | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…47afbacked Under | 43c | 50.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d6…145ebacked Under | 43c | 50.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed Under | 43c | 50.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Under | 43c | 50.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…6a38backed Under | 43c | 50.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 44c | 49.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 38.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 31.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 43c | 29.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…20e9backed Under | 44c | 26.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…9337backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 43c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…f585backed Over | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…0020backed Over | 57c | 20.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c6…fb72backed Over | 57c | 20.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…2b92backed Over | 57c | 20.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb62e…33d0backed Over | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…e22bbacked Over | 57c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Avalanche vs. CapitalsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.