NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a4826d34e6e0331eb54d16ccd883db0b2b99ae4b55c9548421e03ecf2d6675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Maple Leafs, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $467,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,827 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Senators | 72c | 95,252$68,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,670.65 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Senators | 73c | 73,482$53,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,840.19 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 72,000$20,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,160 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 71,454$19,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,741.14 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 70,000$18,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,900 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Senators | 70c | 50,410$35,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,880.68 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Senators | 72c | 35,354$25,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,898.98 | 260 | 58.8%153 W · 107 L | +17.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Senators | 73c | 20,000$14,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 19,850$5,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,655.47 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs | 27c | 18,000$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.99 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Senators | 73c | 16,337$11,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,369.66 | 274 | 48.9%134 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Maple Leafs | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Maple Leafs | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 139 | 48.2%67 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…53a1backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 9,057$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.99 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Senators | 73c | 7,000$5,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Senators | 73c | 6,180$4,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.61 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Senators | 73c | 5,842$4,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.19 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Senators | 72c | 5,105$3,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.81 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Maple Leafs | 27c | 5,035$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.75 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 4,723$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.19 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Senators | 73c | 4,608$3,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.04 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 4,444$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.88 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Senators | 73c | 4,048$2,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.14 | 457 | 51.6%236 W · 221 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Senators | 73c | 4,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 4,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 3,460$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Maple Leafs | 8c | 3,396$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.78 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 3,136$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.07 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 2,321$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 2,260$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.4 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Senators | 72c | 2,144$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.44 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 2,100$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.41 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs | 17c | 1,785$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.37 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…1fe8backed Senators | 72c | 1,554$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.55 | 228 | 52.6%120 W · 108 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Senators | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.04 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.97 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Maple Leafs | 7c | 1,455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 19.8%58 W · 235 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd7…d2dfbacked Maple Leafs | 25c | 1,401$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Senators | 72c | 1,353$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.78 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Senators | 72c | 1,236$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.08 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…c3c3backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 1,204$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 215 | 34.4%74 W · 141 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Senators | 72c | 1,181$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.56 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Senators | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.08 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 77c | 1,061$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Senators | 73c | 1,043$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.61 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Senators | 72c | 884$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.94 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…8bddbacked Maple Leafs | 27c | 800.86$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 800$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 785.86$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 696.55$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Senators | 74c | 650.99$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…4802backed Senators | 71c | 650$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 649.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…5da2backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 600$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Senators | 72c | 599.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 535 | 46.4%248 W · 287 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…aa15backed Senators | 73c | 597.26$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…8a18backed Senators | 73c | 597$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.19 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked Senators | 74c | 553$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 534.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1a…4f77backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 531.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 386 | 45.1%174 W · 212 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Senators | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…766dbacked Maple Leafs | 20c | 490.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Senators | 74c | 483.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Senators | 74c | 471.17$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Senators | 72c | 460.03$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.03 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 450.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…d84abacked Maple Leafs | 25c | 450.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 450$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 529 | 46.9%248 W · 281 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 449.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 385 | 55.6%214 W · 171 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…ef06backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 443.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…6355backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…8b3dbacked Maple Leafs | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0a…3533backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 390$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…c7f0backed Senators | 71c | 390$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Maple Leafs | 14c | 377.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Maple Leafs | 19c | 372.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed Senators | 74c | 371.31$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…de7abacked Maple Leafs | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Senators | 74c | 369$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 427 | 51.1%218 W · 209 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs | 21c | 357.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…8cdebacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 348.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…a329backed Maple Leafs | 6c | 347.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…85abbacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…e490backed Senators | 72c | 342.75$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58fb…1f65backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 307.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…ab33backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 303.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 309 | 51.5%159 W · 150 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Senators | 72c | 300.06$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 589 | 47%277 W · 312 L | -23.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsthis page
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.