NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e97d3ae1c8205b05878233ed3278668b714ab4dddc565f984226e00a728a4ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,752 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 11,076$6,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,811.08 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 7,044$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.64 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 58c | 2,478$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.6 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 2,452$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.04 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 59c | 593.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 54c | 558.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.39 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 62c | 489.88$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…c865backed Under | 54c | 371.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 363.78$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.49 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…cd02backed Over | 58c | 362.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.42 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 360$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 301.31$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 41c | 294$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.21 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Over | 55c | 209.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…400bbacked Under | 60c | 166.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 57c | 151$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 137.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 43c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 58c | 102.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…0425backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…a255backed Over | 55c | 95.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 36c | 91.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 80.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 69.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 38c | 62.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 33c | 59.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Under | 66c | 51.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 37c | 49.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…7042backed Over | 43c | 46.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Under | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 39c | 33.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Over | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…2aa6backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4296…fca1backed Over | 35c | 29.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 55c | 25.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Under | 43c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 21.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.