NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb17854b56d0ebf451c7d71a6c0c1a670ca1d985f5254b1567f15714b12c49a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Senators, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,679 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 7,465$3,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,613.3 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Senators | 50c | 3,045$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.62 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Senators | 51c | 1,811$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.51 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Senators | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Senators | 51c | 1,074$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 52c | 535.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.04 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 403.78$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee0e…b5cbbacked Senators | 55c | 382.6$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 366.03$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Senators | 52c | 336.69$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Senators | 50c | 308.51$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Senators | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…b93dbacked Senators | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 285.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 262$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Senators | 52c | 248$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Senators | 51c | 198.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed Senators | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Senators | 51c | 182.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Senators | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Senators | 52c | 133$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Senators | 53c | 122.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed Senators | 52c | 115.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…85abbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Senators | 52c | 85.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Senators | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…8cd1backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 45.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 42.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Senators | 52c | 42.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Maple Leafs | 47c | 40.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Senators | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fe…98a0backed Senators | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Senators | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 30.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aecbacked Maple Leafs | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Senators | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Senators | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Senators | 51c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Maple Leafs | 47c | 25.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Senators | 50c | 25.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 24.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…724cbacked Senators | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Senators | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Senators | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Senators | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.