TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Uros Medicof Geoff Neal, Uros Medic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$694,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$784,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Geoff Neal66c120,000$78,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,699.882733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Geoff Neal65c108,667$70,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,346.9619154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Uros Medic35c105,000$36,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,249.9822259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Uros Medic34c95,962$32,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,114.997245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Geoff Neal65c91,904$59,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,390.454040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Geoff Neal65c83,976$54,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,584.4235253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Uros Medic36c54,481$19,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,012.565440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Uros Medic35c45,127$15,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,512.519636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Uros Medic35c42,983$15,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,940.247528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Geoff Neal64c38,039$24,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,529.6614558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Uros Medic35c32,649$11,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,221.5711554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…6f94backed Uros Medic35c28,486$9,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,505.17238.9%28 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Uros Medic36c19,810$7,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,678.42552%13 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Uros Medic36c16,111$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,311.13756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Uros Medic36c15,600$5,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9842532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Uros Medic36c11,905$4,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,671.243964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Uros Medic35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,50030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Uros Medic35c8,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20028849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Geoff Neal66c7,576$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6c9…396dbacked Geoff Neal66c7,560$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.795362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Uros Medic34c7,500$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,949.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+89.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Geoff Neal65c6,767$4,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,398.556346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Geoff Neal66c6,500$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2753650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a70…f85fbacked Geoff Neal64c6,128$3,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99a3…9fffbacked Geoff Neal65c5,762$3,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,745.320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac75…a9e9backed Geoff Neal66c5,670$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,720728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Geoff Neal63c5,148$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,223.0821247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Geoff Neal66c5,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Geoff Neal65c5,000$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.9912052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Uros Medic35c5,000$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.925653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Uros Medic35c5,000$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.876738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Geoff Neal63c4,420$2,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,765.6816745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Uros Medic35c4,286$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.715149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Geoff Neal65c3,692$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Uros Medic34c3,434$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.775050%25 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Uros Medic35c3,405$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.252528%7 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Geoff Neal65c3,385$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2008058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Geoff Neal65c3,089$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.0630964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Uros Medic35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Uros Medic35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95010041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Uros Medic35c2,871$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.438360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Uros Medic35c2,710$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.7935826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Geoff Neal65c2,702$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.2350%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Uros Medic35c2,669$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.831442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Uros Medic34c2,545$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.4614551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Geoff Neal13c2,460$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Uros Medic34c2,344$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.1515641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Uros Medic33c2,338$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.4818038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…b04bbacked Geoff Neal65c2,286$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick65cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Geoff Neal60c2,260$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.5890553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Geoff Neal66c2,163$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4298650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Uros Medic40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20037754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf81…80cebacked Uros Medic35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Uros Medic35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3009148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Uros Medic34c1,786$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.4541754%225 W · 192 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Geoff Neal65c1,769$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15035564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3523…a266backed Geoff Neal66c1,498$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.752751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Uros Medic35c1,429$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.576250%31 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Geoff Neal65c1,263$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.862240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Geoff Neal64c1,179$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.2514530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39e6…d92fbacked Uros Medic35c1,170$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Geoff Neal66c1,140$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed Geoff Neal65c1,090$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1a…89e5backed Geoff Neal65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Uros Medic35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6504353.5%23 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbc…d4adbacked Geoff Neal64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6404050%20 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+37.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b61…599cbacked Geoff Neal66c926.68$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6111735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Uros Medic35c903.87$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.361233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Geoff Neal65c900$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5851752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Geoff Neal66c900$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5942673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Uros Medic35c899.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.995250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Uros Medic35c860$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5594344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee02…8132backed Geoff Neal5c800$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36446.8%3 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Uros Medic36c794.61$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.5515540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Geoff Neal65c784.62$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5108856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc0…c9e8backed Geoff Neal64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Geoff Neal66c700$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46213041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7762…309ebacked Uros Medic35c700$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4552552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Geoff Neal9c692.51$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.851030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Uros Medic54c648$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.083852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Uros Medic35c640.27$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.813834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8982…59fbbacked Geoff Neal66c606.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006055%33 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5b…a699backed Uros Medic35c602.86$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.86837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad9…6b63backed Uros Medic35c600$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Uros Medic34c600$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3964425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Uros Medic35c585.04$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.6312147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Uros Medic35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4312833.6%43 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Geoff Neal63c571.33$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.518840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Geoff Neal66c571.21$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37718644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Geoff Neal66c560$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.636655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Uros Medic35c534$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.11952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Uros Medic35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3253847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Geoff Neal66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Geoff Neal64c499.98$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9922661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Uros Medic35c495.37$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.995349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Geoff Neal65c481.97$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31511057.3%63 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Uros Medic33c471.67$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Geoff Neal65c461.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Geoff Neal65c461.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Geoff Neal66c454.55$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004845.8%22 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.