UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12087bea2a5f54fafd2a0c766e511b9f2a57fa6a8199ed07a01a6ce62370c761
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 57c | 3,702$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.78 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 43c | 1,673$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.17 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Over | 4c | 900$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 43c | 781.4$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 42c | 720$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 42c | 476.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.36 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 41c | 446$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.52 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725d…e49abacked Under | 58c | 238.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Over | 43c | 232.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 53c | 230.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 64c | 199.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Over | 47c | 149.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…7ab2backed Over | 36c | 135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…c3bfbacked Over | 45c | 121.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Under | 55c | 92.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Over | 43c | 92.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…1f54backed Under | 58c | 86.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 36c | 84.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Under | 54c | 76.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…3c77backed Over | 44c | 71.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 59c | 67.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Under | 59c | 37.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…3c33backed Under | 58c | 32.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)Uros Medic won
- Will Geoff Neal win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Uros Medic win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.