Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a2db8e70143c8befdffd2d91cead111b6caebbb86850235a70d1213aa41326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,994 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 0c | 19,161$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d19…f498backed Yes | 2c | 7,813$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 5c | 4,475$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.29 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,464$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,998$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 4c | 2,606$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 3c | 1,856$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,782$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,153$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 4c | 1,077$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 9c | 950$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 819.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 6c | 775$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 754.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 630.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…a551backed Yes | 5c | 480.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed Yes | 3c | 441.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 438.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 394.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 374.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…aca6backed Yes | 4c | 365.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 9c | 261$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 7c | 162.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 8-11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.