TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f85…8693backed Yes0c6,219$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes23c4,039$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.84728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes23c3,657$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2254…5ddfbacked Yes26c3,592$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc499…f793backed Yes20c2,887$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d46…fdb2backed Yes21c2,812$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.35825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes8c2,503$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.51175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes14c2,183$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.313748.6%18 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed Yes24c2,110$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.563125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No69c2,085$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.174546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed Yes25c2,000$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-73.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c73…79e9backed Yes7c1,998$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de9…6018backed Yes12c1,709$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.23633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca9…233abacked Yes22c1,627$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.11837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No71c1,619$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.321758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…08a9backed Yes16c1,590$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked Yes2c1,500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes5c1,200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.67549.3%37 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes19c1,172$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.382657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0986…4e45backed Yes27c1,068$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.68785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes41c988.86$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No77c976$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5439…878cbacked Yes6c899.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed Yes36c849.99$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes27c818.65$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.72454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1b2…8619backed Yes3c808.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes38c789.61$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes10c751.1$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.39714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes12c740.24$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.011444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes4c738.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+63.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd296…2bbbbacked Yes15c669.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed Yes20c648$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c619.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7336826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes24c600.33$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0c…562cbacked Yes3c571.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e9e…bd89backed Yes39c565.08$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x128e…9dd3backed Yes23c532.49$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes6c483.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes7c439.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.968047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c02…54e0backed Yes21c431.39$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-73.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed No76c417.55$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17b3…03cfbacked Yes4c417.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes36c400$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed No76c397.23$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes33c363$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.43823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c315.68$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.085933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes31c291.26$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6520…cf00backed Yes19c290.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes5c286.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14fb…678abacked Yes26c275$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410c…f7f0backed Yes18c274.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c270.89$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.735679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919e…ed36backed Yes8c250.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd16…eb67backed Yes14c249.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c220.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.145815.5%9 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes26c220$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.332218.2%4 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4503…af53backed Yes25c217.13$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72cb…542ebacked Yes38c204.47$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f4…6707backed No77c200$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes20c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.71020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…05a9backed Yes23c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed Yes27c190.72$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2dd…00aebacked Yes12c187.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb5…8685backed No68c180$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x591e…50c7backed Yes31c176$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…dd3abacked Yes35c164$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.232050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4940…e353backed No64c149.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26b5…96dcbacked Yes19c149.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes35c145.7$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca03…72e9backed Yes14c140.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e1…8d3abacked Yes38c133.66$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b7…a035backed Yes15c131.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3b…83bdbacked Yes42c120.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes14c117.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…649fbacked Yes19c116.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes35c114.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…2a92backed Yes14c100.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecc…d4e0backed Yes40c100.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebad…f22bbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.441030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d07…1562backed Yes22c97.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a42…6338backed No69c96.45$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No61c94.91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.092025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes15c92.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.871136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d7…0ffebacked Yes25c91.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed No65c86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdced…5fc5backed Yes35c85.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes26c73.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4610731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee7…3019backed Yes30c72.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8af…11f4backed No73c71.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98cc…852fbacked Yes22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes29c68.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab69…2283backed Yes35c64.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+139.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe876…42b6backed Yes24c62.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes34c61.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d74…d062backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7d…fd70backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd460…be1dbacked Yes36c55.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.