NFL · resolved market
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less than 30 million views on day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f7fa29922603f2bf843daaf845fffb705c85ceb355a4e41bfa656a3703c4a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 2,910$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…fdb2backed No | 70c | 2,336$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…84fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,879$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…7375backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 32c | 1,427$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c02…54e0backed Yes | 35c | 1,414$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,059$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 19c | 926.24$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 809.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…ddb3backed Yes | 3c | 793.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 652.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 78c | 567.78$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +62%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca9…233abacked No | 74c | 541.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 5c | 503.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 29c | 451.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.77 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 7c | 415.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 400.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 31c | 391.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 20c | 375.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 358.48$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9027…f3e7backed Yes | 18c | 333.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…4e18backed Yes | 67c | 298$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…9a11backed Yes | 34c | 288.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 15c | 273.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 250.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4776…7f65backed Yes | 9c | 220.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 11c | 214.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…c92abacked Yes | 16c | 205.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…43cebacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 24c | 156.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…2868backed No | 65c | 149.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 9c | 148.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…5ddfbacked No | 56c | 143.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebca…3be9backed Yes | 14c | 125.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked Yes | 29c | 102.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…7bebbacked Yes | 19c | 96.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8094…d020backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d74…d062backed Yes | 16c | 72.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…6ac0backed Yes | 24c | 58.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…70e2backed Yes | 26c | 54.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…0ee6backed Yes | 27c | 48.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…b538backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 74c | 38.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…e998backed Yes | 35c | 36.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…4bbebacked No | 78c | 35.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…1886backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked No | 74c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e5…0447backed No | 80c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3608…f911backed No | 80c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less than 30 million views on day 1?this page
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get 80 million or more views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 30 and 40 million views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?Yes won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 60 and 70 million views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 70 and 80 million views on day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.