NFL · resolved market
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 30 and 40 million views on day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623fded97d41e0c88e4656422d465236989ac52fbcbeec5211d7372f88a1ad20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5005…84fbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,084$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 4c | 4,905$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 32c | 3,992$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c02…54e0backed Yes | 18c | 2,771$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…ac20backed Yes | 1c | 2,727$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,473$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9e…bd89backed Yes | 52c | 2,020$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…fdb2backed Yes | 40c | 1,803$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…3591backed Yes | 2c | 1,151$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca9…233abacked Yes | 27c | 1,084$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…5ddfbacked Yes | 41c | 1,065$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 1,060$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 71c | 999.73$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…7af7backed Yes | 2c | 985.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 597.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…6299backed Yes | 14c | 551.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 17c | 481.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d1…58a1backed Yes | 18c | 426.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4776…7f65backed Yes | 73c | 409.72$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 386.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 23c | 375.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…966bbacked Yes | 16c | 330$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…38a4backed No | 52c | 316.04$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 28c | 315.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…9a11backed No | 33c | 296.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked Yes | 69c | 244.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 31c | 241.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5f8bbacked Yes | 12c | 241.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 63c | 230.34$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb3…bf2ebacked No | 74c | 227.39$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 202.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed Yes | 10c | 201.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…00aebacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…ddb3backed Yes | 11c | 199.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed Yes | 19c | 165.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…e898backed Yes | 34c | 148.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…e2c4backed Yes | 10c | 141.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…9563backed Yes | 68c | 140.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 61c | 140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 114.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…94f8backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 38c | 105.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed No | 32c | 103.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 22c | 102.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…1eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 28c | 95.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 29c | 81.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…1232backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 28c | 73.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 25c | 71.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…6a91backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 73c | 69.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 51c | 67.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d07…1562backed Yes | 23c | 64.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 62c | 64.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…1ddcbacked Yes | 61c | 53.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…2b19backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…6ac0backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 80c | 39.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed No | 80c | 38.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed No | 36c | 31.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed Yes | 58c | 31.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 56c | 30.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe869…dbfdbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0c…de5fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd6…6ec2backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…b814backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93df…cd6ebacked Yes | 61c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…0bfebacked Yes | 73c | 18.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebca…3be9backed Yes | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 30 and 40 million views on day 1?this page
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get 80 million or more views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?Yes won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 60 and 70 million views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 70 and 80 million views on day 1?No won
- Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less than 30 million views on day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.