TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53a0…4af0backed No14c13,128$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes70c4,110$2,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.14546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No0c3,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No29c2,824$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.713748.6%18 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes43c2,385$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.45728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…08a9backed Yes61c2,273$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf95b…14ecbacked No5c2,120$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed Yes62c2,000$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-73.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…8496backed No1c1,980$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca9…233abacked Yes19c1,925$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc28a…342abacked Yes53c1,346$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes57c1,303$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.412657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0986…4e45backed Yes65c1,274$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.05650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2254…5ddfbacked Yes24c1,095$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf693…330abacked Yes74c1,012$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.114100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes75c1,001$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.47785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes63c850$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed No36c849.96$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No50c802.61$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebad…f22bbacked Yes63c717$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.56450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989a…8ceebacked Yes41c687.96$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+88.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes71c568.69$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.588047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de9…6018backed Yes73c551.56$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.64633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c502.87$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.736826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes41c490.85$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e9e…bd89backed No55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes65c376.98$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.362025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No40c372.34$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.450%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x031d…87d1backed Yes63c367.34$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes80c363.25$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…c477backed Yes62c359.69$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes60c353.23$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.72454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6520…cf00backed Yes58c351.27$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d46…fdb2backed No30c346.14$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes76c324.11$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde31…4f59backed Yes63c304.99$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1529…41e4backed Yes17c298.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.81250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes56c297.52$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.48850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes75c296.87$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes14c285.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.65714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No6c282.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.741444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No33c264.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.384914.3%7 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba46…76b3backed Yes67c246.12$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x410c…f7f0backed Yes68c235.17$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aff…5f17backed Yes11c233.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+133.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes79c228.01$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes11c226.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes80c224.59$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No38c221.1$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0410731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes64c220$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.64944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Yes67c210$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3de5…94f8backed Yes71c202.76$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.69837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…3371backed No34c202.17$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d35…f929backed No37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1b…9457backed Yes17c200$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+138.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No17c194.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.291758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb0…4488backed Yes62c193.02$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.02933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba5…2bddbacked Yes14c177.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.62060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecc…d4e0backed Yes64c172.52$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…649fbacked Yes59c164.59$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…39b1backed Yes14c164$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…ad10backed Yes67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No17c149$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes45c140$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+62%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked No38c140$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+274.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x591e…50c7backed Yes74c135$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86b…9371backed Yes75c125$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c123.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.375933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe96f…cfdfbacked Yes72c122.92$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes63c119.15$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed Yes62c117.62$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5203…966bbacked No31c115.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…2a92backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6924352.7%128 W · 115 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac8…1eedbacked Yes61c99.46$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe0…5d18backed Yes72c96.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01d…256cbacked Yes30c90$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+152.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x542c…bdffbacked Yes70c83.58$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab69…2283backed Yes65c79.79$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+139.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4503…af53backed Yes64c74.34$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.761118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes64c73.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.254766%31 W · 16 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0ee5…6ac0backed Yes31c71.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No42c71.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.361136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0033…2ed2backed Yes22c67.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+352.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15aa…0effbacked Yes68c67.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ee…cf53backed Yes75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b846backed Yes44c65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7691…7af7backed Yes65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a30…8363backed Yes73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes73c59.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.19966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209a…91f6backed Yes67c58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes64c52.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.95329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No33c52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d07…1562backed No37c50.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca03…72e9backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5b…afe2backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed Yes61c48.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.522152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ff…ec9dbacked No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b5…96dcbacked Yes50c44.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.