Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11783d9c0cc8eb5806b1acf3cb6e44b6ad684aac1c3abb3e9468e2e400bbd83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 28c | 9,083$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 72c | 5,118$3,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.13 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 71c | 5,107$3,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.51 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 68c | 1,803$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 27c | 1,464$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.17 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 33c | 1,221$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 899.96$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 31c | 696.4$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.61 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…b21ebacked No | 33c | 630.39$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 68c | 599.98$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 33c | 499.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 25c | 482.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 23c | 365.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 353.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…77c3backed No | 31c | 318.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked Yes | 68c | 304.14$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed No | 31c | 286.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 72c | 279.22$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 26c | 268.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 28c | 249.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…0af2backed No | 32c | 249.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 23c | 249.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 19c | 208.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…fbe2backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792c…43bdbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…279fbacked Yes | 76c | 198.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…7fc6backed Yes | 73c | 178.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 27c | 176.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 76c | 173$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 34c | 168.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…e3babacked Yes | 72c | 167.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…9008backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…9051backed Yes | 67c | 148.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 24c | 142.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…16b2backed No | 24c | 142.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 137$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 133.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed Yes | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 68c | 127.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 15c | 115$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 68c | 113.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 72c | 113.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…ec2dbacked No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 28c | 104.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 78c | 101.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 27c | 96.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 71c | 96.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 56c | 95.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…c217backed No | 33c | 95.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 72c | 90.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 22c | 85.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…5523backed Yes | 69c | 83.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…a349backed Yes | 78c | 76.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 74c | 74.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 22c | 67.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 76c | 66.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 73c | 60.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…52c2backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 66c | 55.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…ab5abacked Yes | 66c | 53.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 24c | 52.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…b046backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…c62fbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5461backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…1d6abacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.