Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0efca8d610cc7a695c7e6857b6bd0fe85f8c7f8f20d6a21993d4fc47dcc8f5d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 22c | 400.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 21c | 378.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 378.02$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 68c | 341$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 78c | 275.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 78c | 218.14$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 165.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 33c | 147.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 139$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 31c | 126.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 68c | 51.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 47.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 30c | 47.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 33c | 37.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 26.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…91b2backed No | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.