Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05804e6e987e1aae960f4add9c3d20e1e82605234a7e35730d2a1fc6a5424c2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf67…6842backed No | 31c | 2,209$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 62c | 983.26$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.31 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 78c | 858.14$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 699.94$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.98 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 35c | 670$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 38c | 622.55$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 73c | 488.72$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 33c | 340.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 63c | 299.9$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 28c | 263.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 37c | 254.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 62c | 229.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 67c | 215.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 205$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 45c | 199.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 15c | 193.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 186.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 65c | 178.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 63c | 158.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 153.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 74c | 124$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 34c | 94.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Yes | 70c | 93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 64c | 79.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 60c | 68.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 75c | 68.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 54c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 44c | 61.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 58.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 67c | 57.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 64c | 53.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f54…b1abbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…d6c4backed No | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…ab5abacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…a324backed Yes | 64c | 45.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…18b3backed No | 35c | 43.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…f43bbacked Yes | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 37c | 34.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 44c | 32.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…a076backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…2b8bbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…bab3backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 39c | 26.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed Yes | 64c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…4366backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 69c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.