Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0cbf94b3ced9fb492f55ba124b12a58d00c3dd335dee3f5542254b925663007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 526.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 70c | 447.32$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Yes | 17c | 417.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 31c | 306.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 38c | 299.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…5508backed Yes | 34c | 275.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 250.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 79c | 239.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 230.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 199.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed Yes | 17c | 182.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 159.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 25c | 141.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…0fb3backed No | 68c | 136$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 130.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 113.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 106.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 67c | 103.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 36c | 102.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 18c | 94.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 35c | 86.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 78.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -38%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 25c | 75.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 36c | 73.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…1377backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 75c | 59.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 30c | 40.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 67c | 40.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed No | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 62c | 29.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 47c | 26.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef9…8f58backed No | 67c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…ae8abacked No | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b25…7fdabacked No | 79c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.