Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b69d976589a25f9f17dd728d45f87fb6fdf195f507da5c6d4f11cc6e210b4bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 23c | 1,180$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 63c | 301.14$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…cedbbacked No | 33c | 274.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 64c | 256$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 76c | 205$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 79c | 143.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…1259backed Yes | 76c | 131.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 67c | 99.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 77c | 92.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 79c | 89.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 25c | 88.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 29c | 85.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 65.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 25c | 63.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 36c | 62.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 67c | 57.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…afa8backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 38.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 67c | 35.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 35.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 67c | 30.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…d87cbacked Yes | 78c | 24.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 21.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…52c2backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 75c | 19.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 78c | 13.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.