Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c0868930ec1103fd1a14a713b4fceef63f0fec78e896ec2ef1a5b5a6903d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 8c | 3,727$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.98 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked Yes | 65c | 1,013$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 40c | 871.89$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.1 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 43c | 445.58$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.02 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 46c | 394.97$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 48c | 391.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 67c | 340.36$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 314.93$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.86 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…cedbbacked Yes | 31c | 238.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 153.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 52c | 145$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 50c | 142.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 67c | 121.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed No | 21c | 97.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 69c | 93.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 45c | 76.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 41c | 74.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 67c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 33c | 66.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 59c | 63.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…afa8backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 44c | 57.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed Yes | 38c | 52.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 55c | 49.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 47.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 33c | 43.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…36debacked Yes | 51c | 39.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…a5cabacked Yes | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Yes | 34c | 37.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 34c | 35.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 59c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…6c6abacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 29.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…1451backed Yes | 67c | 29.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 48c | 28.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 49c | 27.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 69c | 23.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 63c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…27aabacked No | 52c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…d361backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…48bfbacked Yes | 51c | 19.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.