Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6964d271f39ff1713b85cfb38dff4259100f95b07e78565192bce8de59978ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 29c | 720.46$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 21c | 701.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 71c | 599.99$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 399.79$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 29c | 391.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 37c | 309.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…cedbbacked Yes | 19c | 304.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…c023backed No | 66c | 272.09$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 66c | 229.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 193.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 193.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 77c | 185.64$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 69c | 170.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 71c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1392backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 118.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed Yes | 33c | 107.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 71c | 106.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 28c | 88.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked No | 60c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 77.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 45c | 74.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbb…2711backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 69.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…597cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 70c | 49.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 32c | 48.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 39.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…7163backed Yes | 34c | 33.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…2d46backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…ba78backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 70c | 30.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…2b8bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…1377backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a4…b64dbacked No | 67c | 26.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 53c | 23.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 69c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked No | 67c | 22.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 48c | 21.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 71c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked No | 70c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 52c | 19.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.