Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821aa781d0c635ee1e633e2658707129fe6ffaf640a400e749077c6f5c159e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 49c | 240$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c4…875cbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 114.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…ba78backed Yes | 29c | 107.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 86.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 52c | 80.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 53c | 63.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 58.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 28c | 46.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…cedbbacked No | 50c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…b1e4backed No | 44c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbb…2711backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 73c | 16.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Innovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Progress" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.