Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d5b5de31a4287e9d0680d04bfcf699577996010a5afd861777050b09b70eba

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,805 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No	53c	1,907$1,017 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$889.64	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	59c	1,056$619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.93	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	43c	932.7$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.34	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked No	57c	325.55$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.99	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes	45c	310$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.7	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Yes	47c	259.57$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	48cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5323…326abacked Yes	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cbf…cedbbacked No	47c	206.1$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.13	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Yes	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No	46c	195.05$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.35	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+4.0wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xebd5…094cbacked Yes	45c	169.9$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.46	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes	50c	165.7$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.38	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	44c	156.59$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.9	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f2…5508backed Yes	44c	150.38$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked No	54c	148.39$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.82	10	60%6 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	53c	130$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.1	123	22.8%28 W · 95 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0437…30f4backed Yes	47c	114.92$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.21	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	41c	113.38$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.49	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed Yes	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e07…0439backed Yes	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	46c	94.33$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.39	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb59b…03d3backed Yes	48c	72.92$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1585…c3b7backed Yes	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked Yes	47c	59.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	38c	54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	56c	50.98$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.25	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	31c	46.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	34c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fc…5111backed Yes	48c	36.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes	48c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.29per pick	43cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	45c	35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	42c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-5.6wins	-0.21per pick	36cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.82	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…a8a9backed Yes	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+3.9wins	+0.28per pick	58cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a68…4ff2backed Yes	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked Yes	44c	29.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6668…9b4dbacked Yes	53c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes	44c	22.73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes	53c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	51c	20.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.39	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	71c	20.36$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.99	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed Yes	53c	20.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	63cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes	53c	19.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	57c	18.28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.93	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	69c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.93	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event